Canadian History and the Politics of Floor-Crossing
Traitor, shameful, brave, principled — a range of words often describe members of Parliament who decide to cross the floor. Yet, one descriptor that rarely stays with such politicians is “re-electable.”
Ottawa was taken aback when longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont announced he was joining the federal Liberal caucus. Prime Minister Mark Carney even hinted that others might soon follow his lead.
A Long Tradition with Growing Risks
Floor-crossing has been part of Canadian politics since Confederation, but the historical record reveals that it now carries a steep electoral cost. Political scientist Semra Sevi of the University of Toronto analyzed every Member of Parliament who switched parties from Confederation through 2015.
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,” said Semra Sevi, assistant professor in the University of Toronto’s political science department.
Her research found that until the mid-20th century, politicians who switched allegiance kept nearly the same share of votes in the next election. However, since the 1970s, these figures have declined noticeably.
“As parties become institutionalized, the electoral cost of switching has risen dramatically. Political survival outside one’s party has become increasingly unlikely,” Sevi noted.
Few Exceptions to the Rule
While there are rare examples of success, the data suggest that floor-crossing tends to hinder rather than help a politician’s career.
Author's summary: In Canada, changing party allegiance has deep historical roots, but research shows it now almost always damages the electoral prospects of politicians who make that move.