Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in life expectancy at birth in 2020 across Western Europe, a level that was only fully recovered by 2023. Spain, despite being one of the most affected European countries, continues to hold the highest life expectancy in the European Union.
The study aims to analyze changes in life expectancy in Spain between 2019 and 2023, breaking them down by age and cause of death, and to compare these findings with the earlier 2010–2019 period.
Methods
Researchers used data on life expectancy and mortality rates by age and by principal cause of death from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was applied to assess age-specific contributions to life expectancy changes, which were then proportionally assigned to each main cause of death.
Results
- Individuals older than 20 years contributed negatively to life expectancy in 2020 but positively in subsequent years.
- The groups most affected in 2020 later showed positive contributions to total life expectancy change for the 2019–2023 period.
- People under 45 years continued to show negative contributions to life expectancy.
“Infectious diseases were the primary cause of the sharp decline in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a stronger impact on men (−1.43 years) than on women (−1.16 years).”
Summary
The analysis highlights how age and cause-specific factors shaped Spain’s life expectancy drop and subsequent recovery after the pandemic.
Author’s summary: Spain’s life expectancy rebounded by 2023 after a steep 2020 decline, largely driven by age and gender differences in COVID-19’s impact.
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