Airfreight's 'mini peak' may see rates to the US fade, but Asia stays strong

Airfreight Market Sees a 'Mini Peak' as Asia Holds Firm

The temporary surge in air cargo demand—described as a "mini peak"—appears to be fading slightly in the United States as the country moves through the Thanksgiving season. Data from both TAC Index and Freightos FAX indicate that global airfreight rates have declined marginally compared with earlier weeks.

Decline in Transpacific Rates

Rates on routes from China and Hong Kong to North America have softened, suggesting the seasonal boost that began in late October is losing momentum. Analysts attribute this shift partly to the completion of pre-holiday shipments and rising capacity from commercial passenger flights returning to the skies.

"It looks like rates peaked a little early this year," said a Freightos representative, noting that overall transpacific demand remains steady even with reduced pricing pressure.

Asia Retains Market Strength

While U.S.-bound routes are flattening, the Asian market continues to show resilience. Outbound airfreight from China, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia remains relatively strong, supported by e-commerce exports and the steady demand from European buyers ahead of the winter retail season.

Industry observers note that carriers are managing capacity carefully, balancing between elevated e-commerce volume and slower general cargo movements. Despite downward pressure on prices, Asia-origin lanes hold firmer compared to other regions.

Outlook for December

Experts anticipate that rates to the United States could see further moderation as the holiday peak transitions into the quieter period before Chinese New Year. However, continued robust e-commerce activity may cushion the decline, particularly on lanes connecting Asia with Europe and the Middle East.

Freight indices suggest that unless significant disruption occurs—such as capacity constraints or geopolitical issues—global airfreight pricing will likely stabilize at slightly elevated but not exceptional levels through December.

Author’s summary: Airfreight’s brief seasonal surge is easing in the U.S., but Asian markets stay resilient due to strong e-commerce exports and careful carrier capacity management.

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The Loadstar The Loadstar — 2025-11-26

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