Two Republicans Lead California's Gubernatorial Primary
A new poll shows Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco leading in California's primary race, raising concerns for Democrats about a potential lockout.
ground.newsHere’s the latest reporting on California’s 2026 governor race polling: most headlines focus on a highly fluid, multi-candidate “jungle primary” situation, with Republicans leading in several new polls/tracking updates and a lot of voters still undecided.
What recent polls are showing
- A new Emerson College / Inside California Politics poll (mid-April 2026) reported Steve Hilton leading with 17%, followed by Chad Bianco at 14%. It also said Xavier Becerra rose to 10% (tied with Katie Porter), Tom Steyer was at 5%, and the remaining vote share was split across other candidates plus a large undecided group.[1]
- Another March 2026 report summarizing a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll similarly described Hilton and Bianco at the top (17% and 16%) while noting Democrats were fragmented and a substantial portion of voters remained undecided.[2]
Why the numbers are moving
- Coverage links the recent reshuffling to Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race, which is expected to cause vote migration among Democrats and undecided voters—but the reporting also emphasizes that shifts may take time because his name can remain on the ballot and many voters are still undecided.[1]
Quick “so what”
- With no candidate commanding a large, stable lead in the cited updates, the race appears to be driven by late-breaking campaign momentum and how undecided voters and dropped-candidate support redistribute after major field changes.[2][1]
If you want, tell me whether you care more about Democrat vs Republican topline, or which specific candidates are rising/falling, and I’ll summarize the trend in that format.